AAPA

Projected Number of People in Clinical Practice as PAs as of January 1, 2002
Overview

AAPA estimates there will be approximately 42,708 people in clinical practice as PAs at the beginning of 2002 (see Table 1). New York and California are projected to have the largest numbers of practicing PAs, and Mississippi is projected to have the smallest number (see Table 2). The methodology used to estimate the total number of people in clinical practice as PAs and to project their distribution by state is discussed below.

Methodology

The overall estimate of the number of people in clinical practice as PAs was produced by summing estimates produced for the following four groups:

• People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2001 and AAPA Fellow Members in 2001 (Fellow Members)
• People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2001 but not AAPA Fellow Members in 2001 (Potential Fellow Members)
• People who were eligible to practice clinically as PAs prior to 2001 but not AAPA Fellow Members in 2001, were not known to have been certified by the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants or licensed as a PA by a state, and had no valid address information in the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001 (PAs Lost to Contact)
• People who graduated or were expected to graduate from a PA program in 2001 (New Graduates).

Our rationale for treating the four groups separately is:

• We have different levels of information about them
• We have found that at least the three groups that can be surveyed are distributed differently with respect to clinical practice status and other characteristics.

The number of PAs within each group was determined from the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001. The exact counts at that time were 26,118 Fellow Members, 20,209 Potential Fellow Members, 2,931 PAs Lost to Contact, and 4,287 New Graduates. To project the proportion of each group that would be practicing as PAs at the beginning of 2002, we used the following methods.

Fellow Members: This estimate was derived through a direct application of the results of the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, which found that 91.3 percent of all AAPA Fellow Members in 2001 who graduated prior to 2001 were in clinical practice on a full- or part-time basis.

Potential Fellow Members: This estimate was also generated by applying the results of the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, which found that 71.3 percent of the PAs who graduated prior to 2001 but were not Fellow Members in 2001 were in clinical practice on a full- or part-time basis.

PAs Lost to Contact: No solid basis exists for estimating the percentage of this group that would be in practice in January 1, 2002 since they cannot be contacted. Moreover, since none of the people in this group were known to have ever been certified by the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants or licensed as a PA by a state, we chose to be conservative and estimated that none of them would be in clinical practice in January 1, 2002.

New Graduates: We estimated the practice status distribution of the people who graduated or were expected to graduate from a PA program in 2001 by using data about the 2000 graduates. We have no information by which to estimate the practice distribution of 2001 graduates directly because those who graduate in the census survey reference year are not invited to participate in the survey.

Our specific procedures for estimating the practice status distribution of new graduates involved calculating a weighted average for three groups:

• 2000 graduates who were AAPA Fellow Members in 2001
• 2000 graduates who were not Fellow Members in 2001
• 2000 graduates who were lost to contact.

This average equaled 91.5 percent.

State Allocation: Our projections of the number of PAs in practice in each state as of January 1, 2002 were also produced by summing the separate estimates for Fellow Members, Potential Fellow Members, and New Graduates. For Fellow Members, we simply applied the percentage of each state's Fellow Members who were in clinical practice according to the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census Survey, to the total number of Fellow Members within the state. It should be noted that the total number of Fellow Members within each state was determined from the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001. The Masterfile contains valid work and/or home state information for these PAs. When possible, we associated the PA with his/her work state. When work state was not available, we used home state.

We used the same method to estimate the number of Potential Fellow Members who would be in practice in each state. Specifically, we applied the percentage of each state's Potential Fellow Members who were in clinical practice according to the 2001 AAPA Physician Assistant Census, to the total number of Potential Fellow Members within the state, according to the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001.

To estimate the number of New Graduates in clinical practice in each state, we partitioned the total estimate of New Graduates in practice for the nation according to the state allocation of the PAs who graduated in 2000. Our rationale for not using the New Graduates' own address information was:

• No address information was available in the AAPA Masterfile on October 16, 2001 for some
• Many of the addresses that were available identified the states in which the New Graduates were going to school or called "home" rather than the states in which they ultimately would work after graduation.

Findings

In summing the estimates for the groups, we project there will be 42,708 people practicing clinically as PAs on January 1, 2002 (see Table 1).

The numbers of people that we project will be practicing as PAs in the states on January 1, 2002 vary greatly, ranging from 37 to 5,097. Similarly, the numbers of practicing PAs per capita by state vary greatly, ranging from 13 to 378 per million population (see Table 2). Nevertheless, it is generally true that the states with larger populations have larger numbers of people practicing as PAs and that the per capita rankings of the states have been relatively stable over time.

Conclusions The number of people in clinical practice as PAs, which we estimate will equal 42,708 at the beginning of 2002, is almost certain to grow. According to the AAPA Masterfile, 4,564 PA students are scheduled to graduate in 2002 from more PA programs than ever before.

Table 1. Estimated Number of Practicing PAs as of January 1, 2002

	Count	% Practicing	# Practicing
AAPA Fellow Members in 2001	26,118	93.4%	(a)	24,383
Potential AAPA Fellow Members	20,209	71.3%	(a)	14,402
PAs Lost to Contact	2,931	0.0%	(b)	0
New  Graduates in 2001	4,287	91.5%	(c)	3,922
Total People Eligible to Practice as PAs	53,454	79.9%		42,708

1. Percent in practice based on 2001 AAPA Census Survey data.
   
2. Percent in practice assumed to be zero.
   
3. Percent in practice based on data for those who became eligible to practice as a PA in 2000.

Table 2. Projected Distribution of Practicing PAs by State as of January 1, 2002

State	Number of PAs Practicing as of 1/1/2002 (a)	State Population   (in 1000's) (b)	PAs per million population	Per Capita Ranking 2002	Per Capita Ranking 2001	Per Capita Ranking 2000	Per Capita Ranking 1999	Per Capita Ranking 1998
Alabama	254	4,447	57	47	46	46	47	45
Alaska	237	627	378	1	1	1	1	1
Arizona	786	5,131	153	28	28	28	26	27
Arkansas	56	2,673	21	50	50	50	50	50
California	4,108	33,872	121	36	37	36	34	32
Colorado	1,050	4,301	244	11	12	14	10	12
Connecticut	823	3,406	242	12	10	10	11	11
Delaware	96	784	123	35	34	34	38	36
District of Columbia	185	572	323	3	2	5	2	2
Florida	2,322	15,982	145	30	30	30	28	30
Georgia	1,408	8,186	172	25	23	22	17	17
Hawaii	100	1,212	82	43	43	43	42	43
Idaho	254	1,294	196	19	24	26	24	29
Illinois	1,021	12,419	82	44	44	44	44	44
Indiana	312	6,080	51	49	49	49	49	49
Iowa	519	2,926	177	22	22	18	19	22
Kansas	465	2,688	173	24	21	19	20	19
Kentucky	593	4,042	147	29	31	33	37	34
Louisiana	297	4,469	67	45	45	45	45	46
Maine	397	1,275	311	4	5	3	4	3
Maryland	1,225	5,296	231	13	13	12	12	10
Massachusetts	898	6,349	141	31	29	29	32	31
Michigan	1,760	9,938	177	23	25	23	27	26
Minnesota	641	4,919	130	33	36	35	36	39
Mississippi	37	2,845	13	51	51	51	51	51
Missouri	291	5,595	52	48	48	48	46	47
Montana	200	902	221	14	15	17	22	21
Nebraska	507	1,711	296	5	7	7	7	7
Nevada	229	1,998	115	38	35	37	31	35
New Hampshire	221	1,236	179	21	19	24	25	24
New Jersey	560	8,414	67	46	47	47	48	48
New Mexico	367	1,819	202	17	17	15	14	9
New York	5,097	18,976	269	8	8	8	8	8
North Carolina	2,121	8,049	264	9	6	6	6	6
North Dakota	186	642	290	6	4	4	5	5
Ohio	1,200	11,353	106	39	39	39	39	38
Oklahoma	640	3,451	186	20	20	21	21	18
Oregon	407	3,421	119	37	38	38	35	37
Pennsylvania	2,425	12,281	197	18	18	20	23	20
Rhode Island	139	1,048	133	32	32	31	29	28
South Carolina	352	4,012	88	42	42	42	43	42
South Dakota	271	755	359	2	3	2	3	4
Tennessee	523	5,689	92	41	41	41	40	40
Texas	2,678	20,852	128	34	33	32	33	33
Utah	369	2,233	165	26	27	25	18	23
Vermont	130	609	214	15	14	11	16	15
Virginia	724	7,079	102	40	40	40	41	41
Washington	1,248	5,894	212	16	16	16	13	14
West Virginia	491	1,808	272	7	9	9	9	16
Wisconsin	877	5,364	163	27	26	27	30	25
Wyoming	123	494	249	10	11	13	15	13

1. The total number of PAs in clinical practice includes the sum of the practicing PAs in each state plus another 490 PAs who work/reside outside of the US or in unknown locations.
2. Estimates of state population in 2000 from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233; Internet release date: April 2, 2001.